live score Betting Tips, Evolution of Predictions, and the First Poisson Method
Betting tips can help you predict the outcome of a live score match and place a wager. Statistics predictions are the most popular tip. The oldest and most well-known prediction method, the Poisson method, is also the best-known in literature.
This article summarizes the Poisson method of soccer prediction and its benefits and drawbacks.
Although statistical soccer prediction methods have been around since the 90's, the most well-known was Moroney's 1956 publication. This method allows soccer match scores to be accurately modelled as random observations using the Poisson probability distribution. Let's say that x is the total number of goals scored in each match between home and away. According to the Poisson method, x and y can be considered random variables. Each variable comes from an independent Poisson distribution. Each team has a different Poisson distribution function.
Each function has its own parameters (mean for the Poisson case), which determine the expected number and goals scored by opponents. The match outcome can be predicted if the parameters of the distribution function have been correctly estimated. The limitations of the number of observations make it clear that any function's parameters can be estimated empirically. Therefore, soccer match predictions are often incorrect. This estimation error determines the confidence intervals that are assigned to the predicted number.
The Poisson model has the advantage of being able to predict the number of goals. It works for most live score tournaments. It is also based on the historical matches played during a tournament. This makes the estimation reliable.
This method is not without its flaws. This method predicts scores for each team individually, without considering the strength of the opponent's teams. It doesn't differentiate between attack and defense skills and doesn't take into account time-dependent changes in these skills. It also doesn't include the impact of home ground advantage on final scores.
These drawbacks led to further improvements in this method. Newer methods differentiate between the attack and defense strengths of teams, take into consideration the strength of the opponent and consider home ground advantage. These developments will be discussed in the next article discussing statistical soccer predictions.